Smart phone innovation era has ended, but now voice interface or artificial intelligence will become the next "burst".

Benedict Evans, a partner at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), recently said in his blog post that the era of innovation in smartphones has ended, but no one can speak voice or artificial intelligence Become the next "break point". He also analyzed in detail the development challenges facing the voice interface.

IPhone 6 design has been going on for three years (before each generation iPhone design Apple only use two years), this fall Apple is expected to release a new generation of iPhone, but also is "another" iPhone only. Presumably we will hear a lot of such as "Apple innovation is dead" voice. Andrews is also the case, the latest release of the O version of the big new features, the outside world is still the argument - "innovation is dead."

In fact, the era of innovation in smart phones is over. In a16z, we summarize it as a S-curve of new technology products (pictured). 90 years of personal computer products to go through the same S-curve, PC is now almost stagnant development (Tiger sniffing editor: take a look at Lenovo computer to know), smart phones are also or will face the same situation. Although the smart phone camera performance will become stronger, the chip speed will become faster, but the war on the smart phone is over.

In other words, no one will ask "who will win this war" and the like. Apple and Google win, the victory has been set, like the 1995 personal computer operating system in the field of Microsoft. The problem now is that the world has 2.5 billion smart phone users, and will be developed within a few years to the scale of 5 billion, the next S-shaped curve will be that a technology product? Will it be a voice assistant? Not too possible. Although Amazon may have bought tens of millions of Echo, Google also launched the Google Home product, but the voice assistant still have too many problems to be resolved.

We still have to see why the most recent time on the voice assistant discussion more bar. First, the effect of speech recognition technology has been quite different from the past, from 2012 to date, speech recognition technology error rate has dropped from 33% to 5%. Although 5% is still not a good enough effect, but has begun to be gradually accepted by the user. In addition, from the US market, the four major technology companies (Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon) inside, after the two companies are not their own hardware platform. So Amazon will push Echo, Facebook is also strongly promote the artificial intelligence products.

Then the current voice assistant products will appear S-shaped curve of the outbreak? Not too possible.

If you look at the current application of voice technology products, it is not difficult to find that in essence, it is still only as a voice command interface to use, that is, the voice into text (and the process of recognition rate is still to be improved), the actual System command operation, is still the old model. For example, the user can use voice input to fill a dialog box, but the essence of the solution is still behind the dialog box, the voice is only an imperfect interface.

But now some of the voice assistant products are doing a misleading thing: technology companies that allow users to just talk to the voice assistant, they can understand, do everything.

The actual situation is that in the voice interface behind the real "dialog box", only then dozens (up to 50), that is, even if the user's natural language command can be successfully identified, "dialog" to complete the operation is also Very limited. Of course, some people will say that technology companies will continue to increase the voice assistant can do things, perhaps the future can be increased to hundreds of species. But standing on the user's point of view, the use of voice assistant to face such a "dilemma": I need to know what it can do, or I said it for a long time is white - this is still able to successfully identify the case.

From the user experience point of view, this increases the difficulty of using this product, not only did not get convenient, but also increased the burden. Taking into account the current voice assistant products can only do some simple operation, then the user is actually not necessary to circle around, just a few times the screen on it. Touch operation is also the way most users have established their habits.

We may wish to voice assistant and smart watch to use the situation to do some comparison. These two products can do things, your smart phone can be completed, but these two products in a specific situation allows users to operate more convenient (as long as you can think of them), such as setting the alarm clock or exchange rate conversion. But only in the user a clear understanding of these specific circumstances, the convenience will be reflected. Otherwise, the user's most convenient choice is actually pulled out of the phone, a few times the screen.

Voice assistant products in the use of the scene is not much time, can not ensure the effective use of the results, which increases the cost of the user. Moreover, the voice recognition rate is still to be improved. However, for some specific and simple user operations (such as switch lights), such as Amazon Echo this product is indeed more advantages. In other words, although theoretically speaking, the voice assistant can do a lot of things, but in fact only one or two functions is the most suitable for this product.

Some people want to make voice technology into the next explosive product, you can understand. Especially considering that smartphones are moving closer to the PC. But whether the voice technology ushered in the outbreak of S-shaped curve, very doubtful. 

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